Friday, July 22, 2005


Yes I have done it again...shit load rise in equity and shit load lost again...i'm a master at it! Just have to figure out how to keep the 100%.

Ok so what happened. Mips went up and then came down and then went up again. I then pulled out and though yeah yhoo and nok going to have great results right and i will ride the wave.

Uh...wrong! No wave to ride, got nailed instead, both fell 10% after earnings.
So what happened to nokia? Came out with brilliant revenue results but missed profit earnings

Here is what I wrote to a friend....(We were arguing about Juniper)....


Nokia's results were actually excellent. They continue to keep their global market share and are the fastest growing in the emerging markets. They are week in America. Their shares got cained cause of profits disappointment because their margins are falling.
But their margins are falling because they want market share. Their networks division continues to grow share, mostly at the expense of Nortel. They want 40% handset market share from 33% currently. And they are able to do this cause they undercut everyone else. I know this first hand from the contracts Nortel lost while I was there and hearing stuff out of Optus. Thus their strategy is excellent. Their handset market strong hold buffers their ability to price compete in emerging markets.

Their multimedia division posted excellent growth and numbers and their enterprise division is coming good as well and they want to continue that development. Their possibility of growth in the multimedia division is enormous. They have a strong alliance with Intel with WiMax which is going to slaughter the current 3G networks. The other have been to slow to adopt WiMax such as Nortel!

They are cash rich and debt free, which means they have the banks baking them up.
The financial market always puts spins on earnings etc to make their dollars. If you look at volume traded last night with nokia you will find that there is a major buy in which was always their (institutions) intention.
Nokia's share price over the next month will rebound as it did in April. They played the same game then.

Just like Nortel is looking for a routing product, Nokia is in the same boat. The acquisition may be hostile (if they do go for Juniper) but some thing they can accommodate.
With Juniper they can take Cisco head on.

Juniper and Nortel no longer have a working agreement. Nortel sources routers from Avici and they may join.

I believe Nokia's going to continue to strengthen in the years ahead if they continue to execute ahead of the market.
Lucent and Nortel are both verging on obliviance. They are still not turning quickly enough. Ericsson, Alcatel, Siemens, Nokia, Juniper, Motorola and Cisco will live on.

The smaller companies like Avaya etc will most probably also disappear.

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