Friday, July 22, 2005

Plan of Intent

Going to short ebay:

Reason:
Ebay rallied 20% on surpassed targets and increased guidance for next q.
Very high p/e and very high volume suggest sell out.
If there is a pull back in next couple of days, I suggest short sell with small exposure.
Short due to over capitalization and competition from yahoo auctions and others and possible google or msn auctions soon coming online.

Ebay risk: Paypal makes a killing! You can check out Yahoo auctions. You will find they accept Paypal and paypal is moving into the e-commerce market. i.e buy something from any online store, use PayPal to pay. This could be huge for Ebay, thus the small exposure recommendation and I would also say hold for less than a Q.

Ok what else:

Mips - they have rallied 30% in the last three/four weeks. PSP still doing awesome from my estimated 'online PSP hype' feeling!! i.e no real data to back that up!
Mips has it's chip designs in most of the emerging market devices. Potential massive growth and their PE is still not enormous.

And then:

Nok - massive buy in after stock fell 10% after Q earnings on 21st July. Buy in suggests they will rally in the coming quarter. Look at my last couple of posts of why I believe they will continue to do well.

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