Saturday, September 03, 2005
Property hopes home in on select suburbs - National - smh.com.au: "Sydney's residential property market slump has been so severe that prices in certain suburbs will quickly bounce back during the next 12 months, an industry analyst has forecast.
Many other analysts, though, expect prices will, at best, assume a holding pattern, but are more likely to continue dropping for all but the best properties.
Several suburbs had been hit hard in the downturn and in some cases the fall had been a touch overdone, said Louis Christopher, the research director of Australian Property Monitors, which provides sales results and analysis to consumers, the real estate industry and mortgage lenders. APM is co-owned by John Fairfax Holdings, publisher of the Herald.
House prices had dropped too sharply in Gymea Bay, Newport, Darlington and Neutral Bay, Mr Christopher said, and the suburbs were ripe for a rebound, barring an economic downturn.
It was a similar scenario for units in Tamarama, Coogee, McMahons Point and Cronulla.
'Elizabeth Bay's median unit price has fallen from $460,000 to $395,000 over the past year, but APM's 12-month projection is for 10 per cent-plus price growth,' Mr Christopher said.
Double Bay agent Bob Guth said: "Properties with all the boxes ticked are selling at better than reasonable prices."
House prices have fallen by 5 to 7 per cent since the 2003 peak, but some buyers are regularly securing bigger reductions.
Distress sales have become apparent among over-extended owners who bought often under the influence of property marketeers during the boom.
At Darlinghurst, a one-bedroom unit, sold off the plan in 2001 for $350,000, resold last month at $277,000. At West Ryde, a two-bedroom unit, sold off the plan in 2003 at $475,000, resold at $345,000. The falling prices coincide with a sharp reduction in volumes for both auction and private treaty listings.
Auction activity picked up marginally in winter on the previous year, but agents reported a slow start for September listings.
The average time a house is on the market before selling is now 83 days, compared with 67 days this time last year in the best performing precinct, the inner west.
Some more evidence of what is happening in the hosuing market in Sydney and what will happen in the cities of America that have seen large increases in price over the last two years. Of course this is going to be the case in China as well which has also gone through a massive explosion in the housing market.
I would not buy comments of price corrections in Sydney. The economic fundamentals just don't match up. With all the recent news of rising fuel costs that is starting to hurt south east asia and China and India and of course the americans and to a smaller extent Australia all have to be taken into consideration.
Because of the global instability in currecny markets, in the resource markets, inflationary risks, the debt laden western world etc I would not count out a global recession in the coming couple of years which is not going to help the job markets nor will they aid in rising average salaries, especially in the "western world".
I would be looking at buying housing in 2010 considering all the negative factors and current risks in the global money markets.
Posted by Vinny at 11:03 AM