I think there is another two years left in the aussie stock market. I was reading the article below and the consensus seems to be turning that way.I think China will continue buying resources until 2008, before the Olympic Games begin. Hi-Tech manufacturing is not going to slow down for a very long time to come, although resources consumed in that sector will not grow as quickly as we have seen over the whole resources market in the last 5 years (due to construction/infrastructure development mainly). So around 2008-2009, I think there is a shorting opportunity if there is growth priced into any of the financial instruments which are influenced by commodities.
The Australian: Consumers make a comeback [April 05, 2006]: "Economists are going back over their forecasts. Richardson believes growth in 2006-07 will be well above 3 per cent, while he expects it to top 4 per cent in 2008.
Deutsche's Meer says that rather than growth in the 2 to 3 per cent range, it will rise to between 3 and 4 per cent, which is closer to the average growth rate for the Australian economy.
Economists will pay close attention to the labour force figures out tomorrow, to see whether last month's jump in employment was a flash in the pan, inspired by Melbourne's Commonwealth Games, or whether there is a more substantial shift under way.
It may be that Peter Costello hits his 3 per cent growth target for 2005-06 after all. "