Wednesday, June 11, 2008

RE: iPhones?

It’s going to the moon…your not going to miss the boat, your going to miss the space shuttle!!

Ok dude, looks like you have been intro'd to trading but you have not been given you the run down.

Three type of inputs into a trading decision

a) Technical

b) Fundamental

c) Wishy washy feeling in your stomach ;)

I can’t explain the third, you will have to find that from watching romantic movies…just kidding…it will just come to you.

Now between the two others a) and b) above.

I like this.

In a shopping mall, a fundamental analyst would go to each store, study the product that was being sold, and then decide whether to buy it or not. By contrast, a technical analyst would sit on a bench in the mall and watch people go into the stores. Disregarding the intrinsic value of the products in the store, his or her decision would be based on the patterns or activity of people going into each store.

So most people (mum and dad traders) use 90% technical .

Remember 90% of the mum and dad community never make any serious money in the markets. Seems like a correlation, aye!!!

I am a fundamental trader. I only look at charts for blue chip companies that are not volatile and have seasonality and are growing slowly. That’s where technical trading works and that’s what it was built on!!

Another great posting on this amazing blog is the following. I have highlighted the important points.

Tuesday, September 06, 2005 Technical Analysis Tutorial - 20 Rules To Stop Losing Money -

This is really good advice, especially for you out there who believe that reling on technical trading is going to make you money. Technical Analysis Tutorial - 20 Rules To Stop Losing Money -

20 Rules To Stop Losing Money

1. Don't trust others opinions -
It's your money at stake, not theirs. Do your own analysis, regardless of the information source.

2. Don't believe in a company -
Trading is not investment. Remember the numbers and forget the press releases. Leave the American Dream to Peter Lynch.

3. Don't break your rules -
You made them for tough situations, just like the one you're probably in right now.

4. Don't try to get even -
Trading is never a game of catch-up. Every position must stand on its merits. Take your loss with composure, and take the next trade with absolute discipline.

5. Don't trade over your head -
If your last name isn't Buffett or Cramer, don't trade like them. Concentrate on playing the game well, and don't worry about making money.

6. Don't seek the Holy Grail -
There is no secret trading formula, other than solid risk management. So stop looking for it.

7. Don't forget your discipline -
Learning the basics is easy. Most traders fail due to a lack of discipline, not a lack of knowledge.

8. Don't chase the crowd -
Listen to the beat of your own drummer. By the time the crowd acts, you're probably too late…or too early.

9. Don't trade the obvious -
The prettiest patterns set up the most painful losses. If it looks too good to be true, it probably is.

10. Don't ignore the warning signs -
Big losses rarely come without warning. Don't wait for a lifeboat to abandon a sinking ship.

11. Don't count your chickens -
Profits aren't booked until the trade is closed. The market gives and the market takes away with great fury.

12. Don't forget the plan -
Remember the reasons you took the trade in the first place, and don't get blinded by volatility.

13. Don't have a paycheck mentality -
You don't deserve anything for all of your hard work. The market only pays off when you're right, and your timing is really, really good.

14. Don't join a group -
Trading is not a team sport. Avoid stock boards, chatrooms and financial TV. You want the truth, not blind support from others with your point of view.

15. Don't ignore your intuition -
Respect the little voice that tells you what to do, and what to avoid. That's the voice of the winner trying to get into your thick head.

16. Don't hate losing -
Expect to win and lose with great regularity. Expect the losing to teach you more about winning, than the winning itself.

17. Don't fall into the complexity trap -
A well-trained eye is more effective than a stack of indicators. Common sense is more valuable than a backtested system.

18. Don't confuse execution with opportunity -
Overpriced software won't help you trade like a pro. Pretty colors and flashing lights make you a faster trader, not a better one.

19. Don't project your personal life -
Trading gives you the perfect opportunity to discover just how screwed up your life really is. Get your own house in order before playing the markets.

20. Don't think its entertainment -
Trading should be boring most of the time, just like the real job you have right now.

Vinny0 comments to this post

If you have got this far you are doing well and do have an interest in this stuff!! Well done.

Ok now to RIMM.

Here is what I took from the 200 price target.

I will make comments on the highlighted parts below.

a) Enterprise functionality…watch the webcast..they cover it all…I don’t think anything is missing!

b) Lower price means more competition for Nokia and HTC. So the analyst is alluding that RIM is premium based market and will not put pressure on RIM. This is bullshit because the 199 price point directly is pitched at RIM and RIM is main competitor to iPhone. Not HTC or Nokia.
The lower priced iphone is going to put margin pressure on RIMM’s top earning phones including their up coming touch phone. Yup they have an iphone copy in the works!

c) Battery life and bandwith…this is why these financial jerkeys should stick to their numbers and why we can out play them ;) Blackberry servers strip content before delivering to your phone. This is both email and web pages. Surfing on the blackberry sucks. The new 3G blackerry’s will allow full access, the iphone will out class in both battery life and bandwidth depends on what you are downloading if there is no stripping. for reference on upcoming 3G rimm phones.

d) RIM will continue to grow…but critical to the stock price, margins will decline for next few years….short baby short!!

e) Misek obviously has a 3G iphone to compare to the Bold…yeah right…..

Research in Motion
Speaking of Blackberries, there seem to be many parties running to the defense of Research in Motion today despite Apple’s emphatic embrace of the Blackberry business market in Jobs’s pitch. The stock is up $1.26, or 1%, today, at $135.37.
Richard Windsor with Nomura Securities, writing from London, observes in a note on Apple that “We do not think that this will affect RIM very much as Apple remains very far away from offering the level of enterprise functionality that Blackberry does.” Be that as it may, the $199 price “moves the i-Phone much closer to the mainstream and will raise competition for both Nokia and [Taiwanese smartphone maker] HTC in the smartphone market.” Research in Motion shares are Likewise, analyst Peter Misek with Canaccord Adams writes that Apple will be unable to match the Blackberry’s security, battery life, bandwidth efficiency, “backend IT support,” among other things. He thinks Apple will do very well selling 20 to 30 million iPhones next year, but that RiM may sell 50 million Blackberries. Misek also tosses in his personal experience, noting that he thinks download speeds for Web pages are faster on the Blackberry Bold (that’s the 3G device). Misek has a “Buy” rating on RiM and a price target of $200.

Good luck with the trading!!! :)

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